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Credit risk stress testing of the Czech banking sector
Vachušková, Karolína ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Švéda, Josef (referee)
This thesis aims to describe stress testing in the Czech banking sector focusing on the most significant banking risk, which is credit risk. The thesis examines the difference between regulatory and internal stress testing, compares their assumptions, outcome quality and usability. It deals with the regulation of stress tests, which banks must fulfil. Further, it uses the current Covid-19 crisis as a test of whether the adverse scenarios used are sufficiently severe to cover the risks for and impacts on the actual negative development of the economy. This analysis assesses the Czech banking sector's readiness and resilience and includes the reactions of banks and the Czech authorities to increasing risks.
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Banking Regulation in the Czech Republic
Hanel, David ; Dupáková, Lenka (advisor) ; Seknička, Pavel (referee)
This thesis deals with the current legislation of banking regulation in the Czech Republic. It analyzes both Czech and relevant European regulation that has increasing importance in the area. Moreover, the most significant amendments enacted as a result of the Basel III implementation are pointed out. The issue is viewed from an interdisciplinary perspective therefore, in addition to the analysis of current legislation, its economic impact on the Czech banking sector is also evaluated. Due to the enormous breadth of the banking regulation field, this thesis focuses on examining the areas considered most essential by the author. The first introductory chapter lays down the theoretical foundations of banking and banking regulation and thoroughly defines the term "bank", both legally and economically. The second chapter deals with banking licensure, which plays a crucial role in the regulation of accessing the activity of banks. It analyzes the requirements that have to be met in order to be authorized, as well as the issue of the single EU passport and the withdrawal of the authorization. The third chapter deals with the wide and significant area of banking risks. The discussion assesses the nature of each risk, as well as methods for their measurement and management, and capital requirements. The predominant...
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Slanina, Šimon ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
A vigorous advancement in the field of information technologies allows practical use of sophisticated, computing power consuming methods. One of these is the Monte Carlo simulations method, which relies on generating an immense number of stochastic scenarios and can effectively solve problems in areas such as physics or mathematics. Entities in the banking sector are constantly exposed to many kinds of risks, for instance the occurrence of negative interest rates. These risks need to be taken into account, monitored, measured and managed. Even the Monte Carlo method, usable in banking for risk measurement, has its weaknesses that need to be considered, and requires certain conditions to be met. It is crucial to correctly approximate the probability distribution and to create a sufficient number of random scenarios, to use a reliable random number generator and to bear in mind any possible sequential dependencies amongst the input data. In the practical part of this work, I analyzed the development of the London Interbank Offered Rate with a three-month maturity based on the US dollar during the years 2000 to 2016 and, using the Monte Carlo method, I tried to predict its future development as well. I came to the conclusion that the method should be used for forecasting in shorter time horizons, considering it provides significantly wider ranges of the rate's possible values at all probability levels while forecasting for longer time horizons. Via stress test, I also found that the method I applied doesn't really reflect rare short-term shocks in the resulting predictions. Neither the Monte Carlo method nor the TRADING ECONOMICS website anticipate the LIBOR USD 3M rate to fall below zero during the time horizon ending in 2020.
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Stress Testing of the Banking Sector
Mohylová, Aneta ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Džmuráňová, Hana (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with stress testing of the banking sector as a tool that assesses the resilience of a portfolio, an institution itself or an entire system to adverse macroeconomic development. It aims to provide the reader with general understanding of theoretical aspects of stress testing and its practical application. In the theoretical part, the meaning, purpose and use of stress testing is discussed. Further, stress testing methodology and its limitations are explained and different types of stress tests are mentioned. In the practical part, two hypotheses are tested using vector autoregression model. Firstly, the dependence between loan portfolio quality and selected macroeconomic variables is estimated. Secondly, two types of stress tests are designed in order to test the resilience of the Czech banking sector and individual groups of banks divided according to their size categorization to three adverse scenarios via the most common macroeconomic indicator - capital adequacy ratio. Results suggest high resilience of the Czech banking sector towards adverse macroeconomic development. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Stress testing of the banking sector
Procházková, Jana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Todica, Doina (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with stress testing of the banking sector. Stress testing as a risk measurement technique has attracted much attention especially in recent years due to the increased instabilities in financial markets. This work defines two objectives. The aim of theoretical section is to provide a complex survey of stress testing principles and methodologies and to contribute to a better understanding of why stress tests are employed. The empirical section focuses on the credit risk in the Czech Republic. It tries to estimate whether there is an empirical relationship between the quality of credit portfolio of the Czech banking system and the development in key macroeconomic variables. For this purpose the econometric model of vector autoregression has been applied.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Aspects influencing the risk of bank loans (from the perspective of the Česká spořitelna a.s.)
Babková, Eva ; Vrabec, Michal (advisor) ; Kult, Jan (referee)
The aim of my diploma thesis is to evaluate aspects of credit risk, particularly focused on the retail banking in Česká spořitelna a.s., where all the data come from. At first the thesis describes the background of Česká spořitelna a.s., bank products and credit process. Further there are explains the basic procedures for assessement of the state of company and portfolio monitoring. In the section devoted to banking risks there are specified bank risks and regulation of these risks from the perspective of the Basel Capital Accord. The remaining two theoretical parts describe methods that will be used to evaluate the risk of loans i.e. descriptive statistics and hypothesis testing. Introduction of empirical study describes the structure and over time of the loan portfolio evolution of retail banking. The remainder of the study is already focused on the analysis of credit risks from several points of view. In the first place there is examining the impact of legal form of organization and type of product on credit risk. Furthermore, evaluations of the riskiest sectors from subject come and ultimately verify the influence business plans of the branch network. My personal contribution is a notice on aspects which have proven negative effect on loan.
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